Boris and the 'Backstop'
It's been a while since I really bothered to pay attention to the Brexit farce but with the newly installed Prime Minster
If we rewind all the way back a couple of years to before the Brexit vote I had a discussion regarding this border with friends. To my surprise none of them had actually thought about it. It hadn't been mentioned in the media, it hadn't been mentioned by the Leave or Remain campaigns. It had barely had a mention anywhere in the UK. The reason I discussed it was I am from N. Ireland, I spent my childhood there. I have family that live there close to the border. I regularly go and visit. I have a vested interest in N. Ireland. My childhood there was during some of the worst of the turmoils known as the 'troubles'. N. Ireland and the people that live there have fought long and hard on both sides to achieve a lasting albeit fragile peace. That peace agreement know as the Good Friday agreement ties both Irish Government and UK government to a constitutional agreement regarding N.Ireland that can only be changed by the agreement of the people of N.Ireland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement
For an idea of what it was like in N.Ireland when I lived there this is from back in the day...
For a summary up to present...
So in light of of the brexit vote being to leave ( something I avoided voting in and indeed hold no real preference either way..) this causes a bit of a conundrum. Theresa May as part of the Brexit negotiations had agreed the 'backstop' to protect the Good Friday agreement. Boris has stated that the backstop is as good as dead and seeks to renegotiate. I think Boris is missing some fundamental issues.
The EU don't want to renegotiate so he is on a collision course for a no deal Brexit. If this happens it will result in some sort of border in N. Ireland becoming a reality. Nobody in N. Ireland wants this, Nobody in Ireland wants this. As alarge amount of commerce is cross border and of an agricultural nature it has to happen unless the UK retains the same EU livestock and food regulations. This is something people who voted leave wanted to ditch... Of course there is all the other trade laws so smuggling avoid tax duty would be rife unless controls are in place. The EU and UK would not want to miss out on taxes...
The UK doesn't get to decide. Due to the Good Friday agreement neither the UK or Ireland (EU) can unilaterally decide on any border it is up to the population of N.Ireland. This point is constitutional and will no doubt become a thorn in any UK government. At present N. Ireland has no working power sharing executive running the province which would allow a democratic vote on any border by the population. Without this in place the UK government can instigate Direct Rule from London if decisions need made. This is problematic due to the main N.Ireland political party (DUP) in a confidence sharing agreement with the Conservative party. Anything the UK government intends to do will require a majority vote in parliment so they need the DUP to agree. If this happens the smaller opposing parties to the DUP in N. Ireland could see this as not being in the spirit of the power sharing agreement at and worst walk away from the agreement. This could lead to a very real push for a vote on N.Ireland leaving the UK and joining Ireland (EU).
Johnson government refuses to exclude direct rule over Northern Ireland
Downing Street has refused to exclude the possibility that Boris Johnson will introduce direct rule over Northern Ireland as part of preparations for a no-deal Brexit, raising the pressure for a poll on uniting the island of Ireland. Ministers will consider in the coming days how to stop a no-deal exit from the EU disrupting the peace process in Northern Ireland and adding to the risk that the United Kingdom could start to break up.
Asked whether direct rule was being considered, Mr Johnson’s spokeswoman said: “We will make sure we have the necessary regulatory and administrative arrangements in place.” Introducing direct rule would see the UK government rolling back devolution — a key part of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles in Northern Ireland — and could increase demands for a “border poll” on uniting the two parts of the island of Ireland.
Mr Johnson is expected to visit Northern Ireland soon to try to persuade parties in the region to restart the Stormont power-sharing executive, which has been frozen since January 2017 because of disputes between the Democratic Unionist party and Sinn Féin. Unless an assembly can be restored at Stormont, Mr Johnson has been advised by Mark Sedwill, his top civil servant, that direct rule would have to be introduced to cope with a no-deal Brexit, with a British Northern Ireland secretary running the province. “The current powers granted to the Northern Irish Secretary would not be adequate for the pace, breadth or controversy of the decisions needed to be taken through a no-deal exit,” Sir Mark said in April in a leaked memo. “Therefore we would have to introduce direct rule.”
Last week Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, made a highly unusual intervention in internal British politics, warning that if there were a no-deal Brexit on October 31, “more and more people in Northern Ireland will come to question the union”. Mr Varadkar has not spoken to Mr Johnson since the new British prime minister took power last Wednesday, although both sides said they expected a conversation between the two leaders to take place “soon”.
In a report published on Monday, the Institute for Government said that if the suspended Stormont assembly was not reconvened, legislation for direct rule should be introduced with immediate effect on October 31. Passing any Brexit-related legislation through parliament would be a huge political challenge for Mr Johnson, given his parliamentary majority of just two, but the IFG warned that there were no easy options. “The government might decide to leave the bill until November 1 and rush it through all stages as a response to an “emergency” in Northern Ireland, the IFG said. “That would undermine confidence and add to uncertainty at what will already be a tense time.” Direct rule applied for 26 years during the Troubles and ended with the Good Friday Agreement in 1998; it has been reintroduced four times since the peace accord was signed, notably for almost five years between 2002-2007.
Last week Mr Varadkar said Ireland would take measures to stop Northern Ireland becoming a backdoor route to the EU single market in the event of a no-deal exit, but said he would try to avoid a hard border. “We are going to try and have those checks at ports of entry and at business level, and random checks as well, rather than physical infrastructure at the border,” he said. Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign minister, said: “The truth is we will need to take some action somewhere in our economy to ensure that we are protecting the integrity of the products that are then going to be sold in Ireland.”
If I'm totally honest this was the outcome I suspected way back when I had that discussion with my friends. It is also something I hope to see one day but perhaps under better circumstances. Regardless of this if a vote was requested by N.Ireland on remaining in the UK this could very well push Scotland to request the same (again!). The unfortunate outcome of the majority of the British population voting to leave the EU is the very real possibility of of the break up of the union. If we take a look at the voting outcome in Brexit both N. Ireland and Scotland had majority remain votes so may be inclined to leave the UK to stay in the EU.
Brexit results
So Boris has his work cut out and the Backstop far from being a nonsense distraction of an excuse to stop brexit as claimed by some politicians and brexiteers is actually a constitutional dilemma that could cause the break up of the UK. I think Theresa May did a lousy job in negotiating brexit based on the fact that she never had her heart in leaving but to give her dues she understood the importance of the good Friday agreement and keeping the UK intact. The leavers out there might be more inclined not to have Boris in charge of this one....
